Amado Lorenzo - President Treasurers Club of Spain
Analysis of the impact of the real estate, financial and politic fraud on employment and the economy
Euro: YES - NO
Where to invest: East - West
Synthesis: Spain
Recent polls show that the first concern of the Spanish population is unemployment.
However, entrepreneurs, professionals, academics and retirees are worried due to the many alternatives available at the time of having to take decisions that can affect their future, their companies and their employees.
It is necessary to have a global vision of the alternatives and its risks, day by day, due to lack of reliable information and growing distrust in the ability of politicians to solve the current situation, who implement procedures to cancel or modify them a few days later, under pressure from domestic and foreign media.
Background
The Spanish economic model implemented since the late 90s, based on real estate, instead of the German model based on research, development, training and export of products and services with high added value, is a mistake that will be difficult to correct and has not been fully offset by the few companies who have done exemplary global investments, developing high value-added businesses in banking, construction, energy and distribution among others.
The real estate fraud and its impact on the financial and political sectors, which some call a bubble, but in fact a series of frauds has been the principal cause of current unemployment, bankruptcy of the banking and financial sector, increased public and private debts also increased by uncontrolled waste of the current Spanish Regional model.
The politicians blame the fraud originated in the USA of the current situation, but this is not totally true. Although both cases are similar, there are important differences.
In the U.S.A. the fraud in the real estate and political sectors affected the financial sector where financial engineering was created to export products that have polluted the rest of the markets, causing a chain of bankruptcies that will have had to be paid by taxpayers in each of these countries to avoid a total collapse.
In Spain, political and real estate fraud is mostly paid by local home buyers as they have to keep paying their mortgages and employees and professionals who represent the largest source of income tax as they will have to pay for many years " the cost to save companies and banks technically in bankrupt. "
The first measures taken by the politicians from 2009 - increases in public spending to save banks and reduce unemployment – had negative effects, because they have created more unemployment, increased the fiscal deficit and national debt - state, autonomous communities,
municipalities , etc. -. These increases have already led to the collapse of countries like Greece and the threat to other countries that have falsified its national accounting – with the collaboration of foreign banks - creating doubts among the public about major issues:
- The viability of the euro and the European Union itself.
- The decision to save or allow the bankruptcy of member countries.
- The ability of politicians to get us out of the crisis caused by them.
Conferences:
Rafael del Pino Foundation http://www.frdelpino.es
Those who have to make decisions, whether personal decisions like where to invest our savings with a view to retirement or the more complex that can affect businesses, employees and even nations, we find a very large volume of information with different objectives that it is very difficult to choose which are best for each one.
We have prepared a summary of some of the lectures given at the Rafael del Pino Foundation, who have chosen a wonderful group of speakers, not always with the same opinions, but will help us make our own sound decisions.
Parag Khana - April 1, 2009
Mr. Khana, promoting his book, defended the decision of the government team of the newly appointed President Obama to increase the direct presence of allied troops in Afghanistan.
During the debate and several e-mail exchanged with him, I indicated my opinion that the strategy established at that time was wrong. Only six months later military and military strategy experts also shared the same opinion.
My opinion is based on finance. The cost of sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers and mercenaries only contributes to a larger deficit in both the U.S.A. and Europe which is not sustainable.
The alternative of recruiting soldiers among unemployed people in Egypt and Jordan, could be a more effective solution considering the economic and strategic aspects to avoid the propaganda of the Taliban and Al Qaeda for a holy war.
(See: http://finecopress.blogspot.com/ )
Richard L Schmalensee - May 21, 2009
In his presentation, some of the slides were dated in the 90´s - expressed his opinion that the U.S.A. will be benefited by this crisis, as had happened in the past, due to the investments in R & D, the developing of new technologies in communications, energy, information technology etc. that would reduce unemployment, fiscal deficit and public debt.
During the debate, some of the participants expressed opinions contrary to his thesis, based on the fact that the U.S.A. had no longer an overall control of the economy, depending too much of China, Japan and Persian Gulf countries to finance its debt and increased competition in technological developments from other countries.
Rodrigo de Rato - September 9, 2009
Don Rodrigo, who I admire and respect, expressed his opinion, with great emphasis, that the dollar would continue to weaken and that it was appropriate to sell them.
A friend and myself agreed to go for the opposite alternative, which has produced a very attractive profit thanks to Don Rodrigo.
This story reflects the concerns of employers when making decisions.
Who could have better information than a former vice president of economy of our kingdom and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. However, it is still possible that his forecast becomes true in the future.
Julio Maria Sanguinetti - April 4, 2010
Interesting lecture that reveals the opportunities but also enormous risks of investment in Latin America.
Undoubtedly most of the investments made by banks and other Spanish companies in this region have been a success. Investments made in euros on a market dominated by the dollar, at a favourable change rates has already had significant operational and financial profits (the effect of the new change in the dollar against the euro as "unrealized gains" in the balance sheets).
The effect of Brazil as part of BIC countries (Brazil, India and China) with the best prospects for growth and development could benefit a greater number of Spanish companies.
Makoto Utsumi - June 6, 2010
If we compare the most recent presentation of Jim Rogers (attendance 800 +) for the presentation of his book and theories with the presentation of Mr. Utsumi (attendance 100 -) because of his lower command of the media, which reduce the impact of his opinions, has resulted in less distribution.
However, his opinions are very important because he advise of the danger of believing that .... previous experiences mean future profits ... contrary to ... PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE DO NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.
Mr. Utsumi warns that growth in developed countries will not exceed 1-2% (less job creation) in the coming years, the U.S.A. consumers will cease to be an engine for the economy, warning signs in the market Chinese, against investing in that country. This does not mean you should not invest in China, but that only be attempted by those companies that are ready to compete and operate in a complicated market whose development will have many ups and downs instead of a continuous ascent.
He also suggests the arrival of a new "leviathan."
You can get an overview of his presentation at the website http://www.frdelpino.es/
Jim Rogers - June 16, 2010
Jim Rogers is undoubtedly a wonderful speaker backed by his success as a global investor (funds with George Soros), writer and proffesor.
First, a debate between Alberto Recarte and Luis de Guindos expressing their ideas about the advantages and disadvantages of Spain to be in the Euro. Mr. Recarte expressed doubts that our kingdom has benefited with the participation into the euro and Mr Guindos (former Lehman Brothers as a stigma) that our situation would have been worsed if we had not entered the European currency.
Both speakers agreed that it would be a disaster to leave at this time the euro.
Then came the presentation of Mr. Rogers brilliantly moderated by Don Fernando del Pino. No doubt, Jim's first objective was the presentation of his book in which he expresses his views, including the following:
- The nineteenth century belonged to the United Kingdom
- The twentieth century belonged to the U.S.A., undoubtedly the most powerful
country militarily and financially.
- According to Mr. Rogers the XXI century will see a new order, led by Asian
countries, mainly China.
- The euro will continue to exist, though, will require major changes in labour and
economic policies. In his opinion is a mistake to save the countries that have
falsified their accounts spending too much.
- He insisted that we buy his book rather than just flipping in bookstores.
- He recommends investing in commodities instead of stocks, he believed that
they will experience lower falls during hard times and will have higher benefits during bull times.
- He insisted that the education of our children should include the Asian sector
and said that his two daughters were studying in English and Mandarin.
- Did not made comment about Brazil, but has a fund in that country. He and warned of
the difficulties in doing business in India.
As a conclusion I recommend to use Internet to learn about the history, opinions and recommendations of Mr. Rogers. Those who have funds to buy his books or at least read them in a library - allows more time to browse it than a bookshop -
However, remember that PAST EXPERIENCES DO NO GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS and that as indicated by Mr. Utsumi, not everything that glitters is gold in BIC countries.
View http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdaAalaWGVo&feature=fvst
Other references:
http://elreinodeborondongo.blogspot.com/
http://finecopress.blogspot.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02JPzYHFqhY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMwkBrz6Kks&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irryIIDoVTs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtBYWdmRitA
http://niveldemocratico.blogspot.com/
